![]() ![]() A discussion on the seasonal price patterns for fed cattle and two classes of feeder steers follows as well as a discussion on the variability.įeeder Steers (500 to 600 pounds): Figure 2 Seasonal patterns for marketing and prices tend to differ depending on the class of cattle. The smaller the variability factor (the closer the points are to the monthly price index), the more reliable the monthly index. The variability factor of 7.8 means that approximately two-thirds of the time the price in a particular year will likely fall between the range of 89% and 105% of the annual average price. This means that the average January price is 97 percent of the annual average price. Table 1 represents the actual monthly index numbers and the variability (standard deviation) factors.įor example, in Figure 2 for January the monthly price index value is 97. The variability range is indicated by the lines above or below the index values. To be 95% confident the range would be equal to the average index plus or minus two standard deviations.įigures 2 through 4 represent the average monthly indexes for Nebraska 500-600 pound feeder steers, 700-800 pound feeder steers and fed steers (1100 to 1300 pounds). The average index plus or minus one standard deviation represents the range where the index for that month could be expected to fall 68% of the time. This variability is based on the standard deviation of prices within that month. Certain times of the year may be more price volatile than others, and the difference between the maximum and minimum index for that month over the ten years will become wider. The price variability range within a month indicates how confident one can be in the price index for a particular month. An index number less than 100 implies that prices are typically lower in that month, than the average annual price. The seasonal price index represents the monthly average price level relative to the average price for the year. This article presents two types of information: 1) monthly seasonal price index and 2) price variability range within a month. The data was collected from USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service. For the first half of 2015 prices have been higher than at the same time in 2014 but are expected to see more of a seasonal pattern as we enter the second half of the year and are likely to be below year ago levels.įor this publication, seasonal price indexes were calculated over a 10-year period (2005-2014) for Nebraska feeder steers (500 to 600 pounds and 700 to 800 pounds) and Nebraska direct fed steers (1100–1300 pounds). Prices in 2014 did not follow a typical seasonal price pattern and prices continued to increase through the second half of the year. These seasonal price patterns can change over time due to changes in factors that affect production or demand patterns such as changes in the industry structure or consumer preferences. Consumer demand for beef as well as the available supply of pork and poultry products also affect the seasonal price patterns of cattle. Cattle slaughter numbers also fluctuate during the year causing changes in the price pattern. The supply of feeder cattle is typically larger during the fall due to the calving seasons and biological factors. These prices vary through the course of a calendar year due to seasonal supply and demand factors. Understanding seasonal price patterns can assist cattle producers with their marketing and production management decisions. Seasonal price patterns are average cattle price patterns that occur within a year. As the industry begins to rebuild numbers over the next couple of years, a peak within the price cycle may be reached.Īs we look to a particular year, seasonal price patterns can be important. The cattle industry has been on the increasing portion of the price cycle as the industry has been declining in numbers. and for fed steers it was $155.04 per cwt. The average annual price in 2014 for 700–800 pound steers was $215.35 per cwt. In 2014 the average price for 500-600 pound feeder steers was $261.16 per cwt. As liquidation continued, prices soared through 2014. In 2011, drought caused further liquidation of the herd in the U.S., beginning in the southern plains. Figure 1: Annual Prices for Various Weight Feeder Steers and Fed Steers in Nebraska, 1980-2014 ![]()
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